No sunspots were observed between March
2 and March 15. One sunspot made a brief appearance on March 2, after a blank
sun on March 1. Average daily sunspot number dropped from 1.6 to zero this week,
and average daily solar flux rose fractionally from 67.6 to 67.7. We’ll be
watching the latest sunspot appearance to see if it is as fleeting as the March
2 sunspot.
Geomagnetic indicators rose slightly,
with planetary A index increasing from 5.1 to 7.1, and mid-latitude A index rose
from 4.6 to 5.7.
Predicted solar flux is 69 on March
16-23, 72 on March 24-29, 70 on March 30, 68 on March 31 through April 11, 70 on
April 12, 72 on April 13-25, 70 on April 26, and 68 on April 27-29.
Predicted planetary A index is 15 on
March 16-18, 10 on March 19, 5 on March 20-22, then 8, 5, 8 and 20 on March
23-26, 5 on March 27-29, 8 on March 30-31, 5 on April 1-9, then 8, 10, 14, 16
and 20 on April 10-14, 5 on April 15-16, then 12, 18, 10, 5, 8 and 20 on April
17-22, then 5 on April 23-25, 8 on April 26-27, and 5 on April 28-29.
Carl Luetzelshwab, K9LA, has a comment
about solar flux and an observation from N0JK in last week’s bulletin
ARLP010:
“Jon Jones, N0JK said ‘Sometimes the
solar flux numbers don't correlate well to the actual ionization.’
“What Jon said is more the norm than
the exception, as solar radiation is not the only factor that contributes to the
amount of ionization at any given location. There are two other factors. One is
geomagnetic field activity (the K index), which can modify the amount of
ionization. The other is an event in the lower atmosphere that couples up to the
ionosphere, which also can modify the amount of ionization and which is a very
hot topic with researchers nowadays.
“The bottom line is if today's solar
flux is higher than yesterday's, it does not necessarily mean that the
ionosphere is better today - it could be worse. The result of all of this is
that we have monthly median propagation predictions (they are statistical over a
month's time frame), not daily propagation predictions.”
This in from Tamitha Skov on early
Thursday in a message titled “Solarstorm Mania all over the News:”
“How ironic is it that only one week
after I talk about significant advances towards making Space Weather a household
name, we get smacked in the face with a bogus story about a massive solar storm
threatening to swallow the Earth? From what I've heard, this story began
innocently enough-- someone misread an info-graphic on a Russian space weather
website. But then the mistake went viral. Over the past few days, reports spread
around the globe, sending people into a panic. I've watched major news agencies
publish the story, only to print embarrassing retractions a day later. All of
this simply because they ran with a story they did not have the expertise to
fact check. I hate to admit it, but just as I thought we were doing so well, I
am reminded of how far we have yet to go.
“This week our Sun is indeed sending us
a solar storm, but it’s not all fire and brimstone. It’s the weak, wispy kind we
continue to expect as we approach solar minimum. The fact that the storm is weak
actually brings us some good news. For amateur radio operators and emergency
communicators already wrestling with poor radio propagation conditions on
Earth's day side, communications might improve on Earth's night side, especially
with auroral propagation. GPS users should also enjoy the quiet conditions, but
be aware for glitches, especially after sunset and at higher latitudes where
aurora is active. As for aurora sightings during this weak storm, reports are
coming in from Norway, Sweden, and Finland as well as from Ontario, Manitoba,
and Saskatchewan Canada. In the U.S.A. aurora has been sighted as far south as
Michigan and Minnesota.
“While these solar storm effects are
surely noteworthy, they are hardly catastrophic or even massive. So as far as
all the hype? I think we can safely put that story to bed.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-DK43Rx0Xo
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the
period March 16 to Apr 10, 2018 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.
"Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on March 20, 24, 28-29, April
1-2, 4-9
Mostly quiet on March 21, 30-31, April
3
Quiet to unsettled on March 19, 22-23,
25, 27
Quiet to active on March 16-18
Active to disturbed on March 26
Solar wind will intensify on March
16-18, (19-20, 25-26, April 3-?).
Remark:
- Parenthesis means lower
probability of activity enhancement."
