:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 May 29 0600 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 22 - 28 May 2017
Solar activity was at very low levels to low
levels over the period.
Low levels were observed on 28 May due to a C3/Sf
flare at 28/1928
UTC and a C1/Sf flare at 28/2313 UTC from Region 2659 (N13,
L=041,
class/area Dao/220 on 28 May). Other events included an
approximate
25 degree filament eruption centered near N04W03 which was
observed
lifting off in H-alpha imagery beginning at 22/1900 UTC.
An
associated partial-halo CME was observed with the majority of
the
ejecta off the western limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning
at
23/0512 UTC. WSA-Enlil modelling of the event showed an
Earth-directed
component with the associated CME.
No proton events were observed at
geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels from 22-27 May with a peak flux of
26,098 pfu observed
at 22/1650 UTC. Electron flux dropped to normal levels on
28 May due
to the arrival of the 23 May CME.
Geomagnetic field
activity ranged from quiet to G3 (Strong) storm
levels over the period. The
period began under the declining
influence of a negative polarity coronal
hole high speed stream (CH
HSS). Solar wind speeds declined from
approximately 570 km/s to near
300 km/s by 27 May while total field was
between 3 nT and 7 nT.
Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 22-23 May
with quiet
levels from 24 May through most of 27 May. Beginning at 27/1447
UTC,
a small shock was observed indicating the arrival of the 23 May
CME.
Total field increased from 3 nT to 10 nT while the solar
wind
increased from 303 km/s to 353 km/s. Although solar wind
speed
remained fairly steady between 350 km/s and 380 km/s,
another
increase in total field was observed with the transition into
the
magnetic cloud at 27/2000 UTC. Total field reached a maximum of 23
nT
at 27/2230 UTC before it slowly declined to near 13 nT by the end
of the
period. The Bz component deflected southward to -20 nT
beginning at 27/2036
UTC and remained negative until 28/1442 UTC. A
geomagnetic sudden impulse was
observed at 27/1536 UTC (19 nT at the
Boulder magnetometer) indicating the
arrival of the CME. The
geomagnetic field responded with a period of G2
(Moderate) storm
levels late on 27 May followed by G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) storm
levels
through midday on 28 May. A decrease to quiet to active levels
was
observed during the second half of 28 May.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 29 MAY - 24 JUNE 2017
Solar activity is expected to
be at very low levels throughout the
forecast period with a chance for
further isolated C-class flares on
29-30 May due to flare potential from
Region 2659.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels
likely
from 29-30 May due to CME influence. High levels are also
likely
from 16-24 Jun due to CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field
activity is expected to be at quiet to active
levels on 29 May due to waning
CME effects. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected from 30 May through 09 Jun.
From 10-19 Jun, unsettled
to active levels are expected with G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm
levels likely on 16 Jun due to recurrent CH HSS effects.
Mostly
quiet conditions are expected to return from 20-24
Jun.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued:
2017 May 29 0600 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space
Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the
Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2017-05-29
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 May 29 78
12 4
2017 May 30 72 5 2
2017 May 31
70 5 2
2017 Jun 01 70 5 2
2017
Jun 02 70 5 2
2017 Jun 03 70
5 2
2017 Jun 04 70 5 2
2017 Jun 05
70 5 2
2017 Jun 06 70 5 2
2017
Jun 07 70 5 2
2017 Jun 08 70
5 2
2017 Jun 09 75 5 2
2017 Jun 10
75 10 4
2017 Jun 11 78 12 4
2017
Jun 12 80 8 3
2017 Jun 13 80
8 3
2017 Jun 14 80 10 3
2017 Jun 15
80 12 4
2017 Jun 16 80 25 5
2017
Jun 17 80 10 4
2017 Jun 18 80
8 3
2017 Jun 19 80 8 3
2017 Jun 20
80 5 2
2017 Jun 21 80 5 2
2017
Jun 22 75 5 2
2017 Jun 23 75
5 2
2017 Jun 24 72 5 2
(SWPC via
DXLD)
