venerdì 30 settembre 2016

Weekly Forecasts Bulletin

Solar activity forecast for the period September 30 - October 6, 2016


Activity level: mostly very low to low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range A6.5-B2.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 65-95 f.u.
Events: class C (0-1/day), class M (0-1/period), class X (0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 0-60

Tomas Blaha
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 30 - October 6, 2016


Quiet: Oct 5 - 6
Unsettled: Oct 3 - 4
Active:  Sep 30 - Oct 2
Minor storm: possible Sep 30 - Oct 1
Major storm:0
Severe storm: 0

Geomagnetic activity summary:
Currently, the active conditions persist because of coronal hole reaching
from the northern polar cap to the southern heliographic latitudes.
We expect active conditions (with possible minor storm again) at least to
Oct 1, then, we predict turning to unsettled conditions (with possible
isolated active episode, K=4) between Oct 3 - 4. The following days, we
expect quiet to unsettled conditions return.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 30 - October 26, 2016


Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on October 9 - 10, 13,
mostly quiet on October 7, 11, 14, 20,
quiet to unsettled on October 5 - 6, 8, 15 - 16, 19, 21,
quiet to active on October 1 - 3, 5, 12, 17 - 18, 23 - 24
active to disturbed on September 30, October 4, 22, 25 - 26

Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected
on September 30, October 1 - 3 and 15 - 17.

Remark:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH
Czech Propagation Interested Group
(OK1HH & OK1MGW, weekly forecasts since 1978)
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz