:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Mar 21 0054 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 14 - 20 March 2016
Solar activity ranged from very low to low
levels during the period.
Low levels were observed on 15, 16 and 19 March due
to isolated,
weak C-class flares from Regions 2521 (N19, L=029,
class/area
Dao/080 on 14 Mar) and 2522 (N14, L=078, class/area Cao/040 on
15
Mar). No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed
in
coronagraph imagery.
No proton events were observed at
geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels on 14, 15 and 19 March and high
levels on 16-18 and
20 March.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from
quiet to minor storm levels
(G1-minor). The period began with quiet
conditions, but increased to
unsettled to minor storm levels late on 14 March
due to the onset of
a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) in advance of a
coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS) that originated from a negative
extension
off of the southern crown. With the CIR, wind speeds
rapidly
increased from about 360 km/s to near 565 km/s by late on the
14th.
The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) responded with total
field
(Bt) readings of 23 nT while the Bz component rotated between +18
nT
to - 19 nT.
Geomagnetic field conditions remained elevated through
18 March with
quiet to minor storm levels. Solar wind conditions also
remained
enhanced with wind speeds that approached 600 km/s midday on
the
17th. Bt and Bz relaxed by early on 15 March with Bt fairly steady
at
10 nT with Bz varying between +/- 8 nT. 18 and 19 March saw quiet
to active
levels due to prolonged periods of southward Bz. During
this time frame, wind
speeds averaged about 425 km/s.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC
ACTIVITY 21 MARCH - 16 APRIL 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance
for C-class activity throughout the outlook
period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
is
expected to be high levels on 21-22 March, 04-06 April and 12-16
April.
Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of
the outlook
period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G2-moderate
storm
levels on 02 April with G1-minor storm levels expected on 03,
11-13
April due to the influence of recurrent, negative polarity CH
HSSs.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the remainder of
the
outlook period under a nominal solar wind regime.
:Product:
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Mar 21 0054
UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2016-03-21
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Mar 21 90
8 3
2016 Mar 22 85 8 3
2016 Mar 23
85 10 3
2016 Mar 24 85 8 3
2016
Mar 25 90 5 2
2016 Mar 26 90
5 2
2016 Mar 27 90 5 2
2016 Mar 28
90 5 2
2016 Mar 29 90 5 2
2016
Mar 30 90 5 2
2016 Mar 31 90
5 2
2016 Apr 01 90 5 2
2016 Apr 02
90 30 6
2016 Apr 03 90 20 5
2016
Apr 04 95 8 3
2016 Apr 05 95
5 2
2016 Apr 06 95 5 2
2016 Apr 07
95 5 2
2016 Apr 08 95 10 3
2016
Apr 09 95 5 2
2016 Apr 10 95
15 3
2016 Apr 11 95 24 5
2016 Apr 12
90 22 5
2016 Apr 13 90 20 5
2016
Apr 14 90 8 3
2016 Apr 15 90
8 3
2016 Apr 16 90 5 2
(SWPC via
DXLD)
