:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Dec 21 0423 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 14 - 20 December 2015
Solar activity was at low levels. The
period was dominated by low to
mid-level C-class flare activity from a number
of active regions,
the largest of which was a C6/1f flare at 16/0903 UTC from
Region
2468 (S15, L=128, class/area=Dao/120 on 10 Dec). Region 2468 was
the
most productive region on the visible disk throughout the
summary
period, however, an unnumbered region behind the northeast
limb
produced multiple mid-level C-class flares within quick
succession
and caused a slow increase in the background GOES-15 x-ray flux
late
in the period.
Two asymmetrical full-halo coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) were
observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery on 16 Dec. The
first
CME was observed in C2 imagery beginning at 16/0924 UTC and
was
associated with the C6/1F flare mentioned above. The second
CME,
associated with a filament eruption, was first observed
in
coronagraph imagery at 16/1436 UTC. Both CMEs were determined to
be
Earth-directed and arrived at Earth late on 19 Dec. See the
geomagnetic
summary below for further information on this event.
No proton events
were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 14 Dec and 19 Dec with
moderate levels observed
throughout the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity reached active to G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic
storm levels late on 14 Dec and early on 15 Dec due to the
influence
of a corotating interaction region followed by the onset of
a
negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Isolated
active field conditions were observed early on 16 Dec and again
late
on 17 Dec due to weak substorming. The CMEs from 16 Dec
presumably
merged in the interplanetary medium and impacted the Earth
at
19/1528 UTC. During the passage of the interplanetary shock, solar
wind
parameters aboard the ACE spacecraft became suddenly enhanced.
Total field
strength values initially increased from 5 nT to 17 nT
and the Bz component
went strongly southward shortly after the
initial shock passage. The
prolonged period of southward magnetic
field (-Bz) associated with the
passage of the 16 Dec CMEs caused
periods of active conditions late on 19 Dec
and active to G2
(Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 20 Dec. G2 storm
conditions
were observed between 20/0300-0600 UTC and 20/1500-2359 UTC.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 21 DEC 2015 - 16 JAN
2016
Solar activity is expected to be low throughout the period with
a
chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts)
on 21
Dec through 03 Jan to the increased flare activity from an
unnumbered region
behind the east limb.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
is
expected to be at normal levels on 21-27 Dec, moderate levels on
31
Dec-02 Jan, and 14-16 Jan. High flux levels are expected on 28-30
Dec
and 03-13 Jan.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at active to
G2
(Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels early on 21 Dec due to the
waning
effects of the 16 Dec coronal mass ejections. G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storms
are likely on 02, 06, and 10 Jan due to the
influence of recurrent coronal
hole high speed streams.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Dec 21 0423 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and
SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2015-12-21
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Dec 21 120
35 6
2015 Dec 22 120 10 3
2015 Dec 23
115 5 2
2015 Dec 24 105 8 3
2015
Dec 25 100 12 3
2015 Dec 26 98
10 3
2015 Dec 27 98 5 2
2015 Dec 28
95 5 2
2015 Dec 29 95 5 2
2015
Dec 30 98 5 2
2015 Dec 31 98
5 2
2016 Jan 01 100 15 4
2016 Jan 02
100 20 5
2016 Jan 03 105 18 4
2016
Jan 04 110 10 4
2016 Jan 05 110
8 3
2016 Jan 06 110 20 5
2016 Jan 07
115 18 4
2016 Jan 08 115 12 4
2016
Jan 09 115 10 3
2016 Jan 10 120
20 5
2016 Jan 11 120 18 4
2016 Jan 12
120 10 3
2016 Jan 13 120 8 3
2016
Jan 14 118 5 2
2016 Jan 15 118
5 2
2016 Jan 16 115 5 2
(SWPC via
DXLD)
