venerdì 17 luglio 2015

Solar activity forecast for the period July 17 - 23, 2015

Activity level: mostly very low to low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B1.5-B8.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 90-130 f.u.
Events: class C (0-10/day), class M (0-5/period), class X (0/period),
        proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 15-90

Jozef Lesko
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
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Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 17 - 23, 2015

Next days, July 17 - 19, we expect at most quitet to unsettled conditions.
Monday, July 20, the local geomagnetic field is expected as unsettled.
Next days, July 21-22, active conditions are expected because of
equatorial coronal hole (a month ago, the K-index at Budkov observatory
had reached to 7). Next week, the addition of CME to speed solar wind is
less probable, we expected geomagnetic activity should not exceed minor
storm level.
Last day of forecasted week, we expect at most unsettled conditions.

Tomas Bayer
Institute of Geophysics ASCR
Budkov Geomagnetic Observatory (BDV)
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Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 17 - August 11, 2015

Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on July 25 - 26, 28 - 29, August 4
mostly quiet on July 23 - 24, 27, August 3, 5, 10 - 11
quiet to unsettled on July 17 - 18, 20 - 21, August 7, 9
quiet to active on July 19, 22, 30, August 2, 6
active to disturbed on July 31, August 1, (8)

Amplifications of the solar wind are expected on July (19,)
20 - 25, (26,) August (1 - 5, 8,) 9 - 10

Remark:
- Reliability of predictions remains reduced in pesent phase od solar cycle.
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH
Czech Propagation Interested Group
(OK1HH & OK1MGW, weekly forecasts since 1978)
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz